Online Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization for Search in Imperfect Information Games
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Online search in games has been a core interest of artificial intelligence. Search in imperfect information games (e.g., Poker, Bridge, Skat) is particularly challenging due to the complexities introduced by hidden information. In this paper, we present Online Outcome Sampling, an online search variant of Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization, which preserves its convergence to Nash equilibrium. We show that OOS can overcome the problem of non-locality encountered by previous search algorithms and perform well against its worst-case opponents. We show that exploitability of the strategies played by OOS decreases as the amount of search time increases, and that preexisting Information Set Monte Carlo tree search (ISMCTS) can get more exploitable over time. In head-to-head play, OOS outperforms ISMCTS in games where non-locality plays a significant role, given a sufficient computation time per move.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.036 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".