Impact of permafrost thaw on hydrological connectivity between soils and surface waters
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In recent decades, permafrost degradation and changing freeze-thaw conditions have intensified the hydrologic cycle and changed hydrogeological processes in Arctic environments. The gradual deepening of the active layer, the lowering of supra-permafrost water tables, the expansion of taliks, and in some places the thawing of ice-rich permafrost, restructure existing pathways and create new ones for water flow and infiltration. In particular, the abrupt thaw of ice-rich permafrost causes localised ground subsidence, which redirects water towards collapsed areas, resulting in the formation of thermokarst lakes. This study aims to explore the evolving connectivity between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the context of permafrost thaw. With the deepening of the active layer, soil water is expected to infiltrate mineral-rich horizons. To detect these hydrological changes, geochemical tracers of mineral weathering such as silicon isotopes (δ30Si) and radiogenic strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) are well-suited. We analyse these tracers in water samples collected during summer 2023 from lakes, ponds and soils in the areas of Beaver Creek, Yukon, Canada and of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. In the Beaver Creek area, we compare a newly formed thermokarst lake to an older lake with long-standing soil-water connectivity but recent permafrost degradation nearby. In the Churchill area, geochemical tracers help determine whether and how permafrost thaw influences water chemistry in trough ponds and larger depressions formed by recent ice-wedge polygons degradation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".