After the Celtic Tiger: Challenges Ahead
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The year 2001 was a watershed. The ‘dotcom’ bubble had already burst by the middle of 2000, but the dreaded word ‘recession’ was not much used until people returned to work after the Christmas–New Year holiday in January 2001. Everyone now knows that the US entered a recession in the second quarter of the year; the burning issue is how deep and how long this will be. For a while we Europeans – especially we Irish – smugly believed that we were insulated from the cold winds blowing across the Atlantic. But gradually the truth dawned – the US is the locomotive that pulled the world economy through the boom of the 1990s and when that locomotive began to slow, Europe and Ireland slowed too. As the year wore on commentators in Ireland began to notice that the optimistic projects on which Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy had based his budget of December 2000 were more like pulp fiction than sober economic forecasts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.011 | 0.013 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.040 | 0.025 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".