Higher Interest Rates Hinder Hotel Price Momentum
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The price performance of hotels by region was mixed in the third quarter of 2023. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Mountain, and West South Central posted positive quarterly and year-over-year results. In contrast, New England and the South Atlantic regions struggled, and the Pacific region recorded only slight year-over-year gains. Hotels in non-gateway cities continued to outperform those in gateway cities. Transaction volume fell year-over- year and quarter-over-quarter. However, volume is up this quarter for large hotels and hotels in gateway cities. Based on moving averages, a “hold” signal is indicated for large hotels, with a “buy” signal for small properties. That said, the situation calls for keeping your gunpowder dry, given that the standardized prices of both large and small hotels have softened. Hotel interest rates for both Class A and Class B and C hotels rose about 3.6 percent this quarter and approximately 4 percent year over year, even as credit spreads tightened and the delinquency rate on hotel loans fell this quarter. Looking at commercial property categories, the delinquency rate on hotels is now lower than both retail and office properties. As in the prior period, the borrowing costs still exceed the return on hotels. Expect to see an uptick in the price of large hotels in the next quarter, while prices for small hotels falter, based on our leading indicators of hotel price performance. This is volume 12, number 3 of the hotel indices series.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.009 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it