Investigating the role of Disruptive Events on Canadian Energy Transitions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This dissertation seeks to clarify how the relationships between policy, perception, and disruptive events shape energy system transformation. Energy and policy experts were engaged using a survey instrument to assess perceptions of the speed, degree, and disruptiveness of change in the energy sector since 2000. Respondents were asked what might cause disruption to the energy system, and how these disruptive forces might affect the energy system. Respondents identified both episodic events (e.g., Covid-19) and ongoing forces (e.g., conflict or political agendas) as disruptive events. The most likely trigger for disruptions to Canada’s energy sector are changes of policy or government. This finding is confirmed when subnational trends around energy demand are examined. In both Alberta and Ontario, longer-term impacts are seen with policy interventions; climate change policy is one of the primary tools used to influence both oil and natural gas use in both Alberta and Ontario. A key finding is that a focus on greenhouse gas emissions will target oil faster than natural gas, as the emissions per unit of energy tend to be higher with oil products; this phenomenon is clearly seen in both Alberta and Ontario. The thesis clearly identifies that perceptions of change do not necessarily match the reality of energy sector change in Canada. Most respondents correctly identified renewables as having experienced substantial change. Respondents were also aligned in perceiving a relative lack of change in demand for oil products over the study period. Where perceptions of change and actual change really differ is related to natural gas, where very large gains in use were overlooked by key informants. This has significant implications for how policymakers perceive change in Canada’s energy mix. This dissertation contributes to the existing conversation on energy geography and political ecology by highlighting the intricate connections between place, perception, and political dynamics that influence the direction of energy system transformation. Furthermore, this work advocates for a more coherent and integrated approach to energy transition planning. It is critical that planning prioritizes long-term sustainability over short-term substitution and considers the spatially differentiated impacts of policy across Canada's energy systems landscape.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".