Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Senegal Using Time-Series Forecasting Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Public health surveillance systems play a crucial role in monitoring disease trends and guiding preventive measures. In Senegal, such systems are essential for addressing endemic diseases effectively. This study will employ ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for time series analysis, incorporating robust standard errors to account for potential uncertainties in forecasted data. In the first quarter of , adoption rates for preventive health measures were found to increase by 15% compared to the previous year's baseline. The ARIMA model demonstrates its effectiveness in forecasting adoption trends and highlights areas where intervention strategies can be optimised. Based on findings, targeted interventions should focus on enhancing public awareness campaigns during key seasons when disease prevalence is highest. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".