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Record W7132058287

Road weather forecasting – ICEWARN model

2017· article· en· W7132058287 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueASEP · 2017
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicSmart Materials for Construction
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsHydrometeorologyProbabilistic logicParametrization (atmospheric modeling)Numerical weather predictionWeather forecastingModel output statisticsTropical cyclone forecast modelEnsemble forecastingRoad surface
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We have developed a new model (ICEWARN) for the forecast of road surface temperature and road surface conditions. The model stems from the Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads (METRo) developed by the Environment and Climate Change Canada. ICEWARN is linked to measurements of the road weather stations in the area of interest and to forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model ALADIN, which is the operational model of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.\n\nICEWARN is focused on forecasts in urban areas. It differs from the METRo model mainly in the parametrization of radiation fluxes and in the inclusion of sky-view factor for the direct solar irradiance. Besides deterministic forecasts, ICEWARN allows probabilistic forecasting of the road surface temperature based on our ensemble forecast method.\n\nAn evaluation of the ICEWARN model forecasts for selected roads in Prague during the winter season\n2016/2017 is presented. The probabilistic forecast is performed for the lead times up to 6 hours. The deterministic forecast is computed and evaluated for the lead times up to 24 hours.\n\nThe target users of the project output, which are the road maintenance services in the capital city of Prague, will obtain operational information that will enable them, in addition to reducing the weather risks, to make their winter activities as well as the whole Prague transport economically more effective and more environmental-friendly.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.345
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.240
Teacher spread0.209 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it