Barcelona Economic Newsflash. No. 23
Bibliographic record
Abstract
❑ Visitor Economy HIGHLIGHTS ❑ In the second quarter of 2024, Barcelona's economy showed quicker growth and a +3.8% year-onyear increase in Gross Domestic Product, which is higher than the economies of Catalonia (+3.0%),Spain (+3.1%) and especially the European Union (+0.8%).The city's GDP is now 8.2% higher -in real terms -than prior to the pandemic. ❑The forecasts improve expectations and estimate the growth in the Catalan GDP at 3% for 2024 (5 decimal points over the July forecast).❑ Inflation in September dropped below 2% for the first time in three years, and the 12-month Euribor is under 3 points for the first time since November 2022.❑ Disposable household income (DHI) has also shown a significant increase (+9.4 % year-on-year) in Q2 thanks to the dynamic behaviour of mixed income.With this trend, the DHI stands at 25% over the pre-pandemic in nominal terms and 5% in real terms.❑ The job market is creating jobs in Barcelona at a good pace and has recorded the highest number of people affiliated with Social Security in a month of September -1,227,111 people, with a year-on-year increase of +2.4% and 28,827 contributors.❑ By sectors, in the period 2019-2024 the majority of the city's economic sectors have contributed to net job creation, with a notable increase of almost 29,000 jobs in the information and communication sector, more than 24,000 in corporate services, 18,000 in education, and more than 13,000 in healthcare activities and social services.❑ Registered unemployment showed slightly unfavourable year-on-year behaviour in September, standing at +0.9% and an increase of 552 people, but it is still at one of the lowest levels since 2008.In the third quarter of 2024, Barcelona had an unemployment rate of 7.5% according to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which is similar to the rate in the third quarter of 2023 (7.3%).❑ Regarding job quality, permanent contracts have hit a historical record, accounting for 43.7% of total contracts from January to September.❑ In the first eight months of the year, many new companies were incorporated in Barcelona (+6.3%), and some of the strategic sectors have shown significant upticks, especially ICT (19.5%), the blue economy (16.7%), tourism (16.1%), the agri-food sector (15.6%) and the creative sectors (7.1%).❑ The office market in Barcelona confirms the market's reactivation which began in the fourth quarter of 2023, with 217,000 m 2 contracted in the first nine months (50.2% more than the previous year) and a particularly favourable trend in new business areas -like 22@ -and the city centre/CBD.The office vacancy rate in the city as a whole stands at 12.3%.❑ Exports of goods from the Barcelona area showed a year-on-year decline of 6.3% in the first eight months of the year -in line with Europe as a whole -after the dynamism of 2023.The province still leads the export ranking in Spain.❑ In 2024, Catalonia recorded the highest number of foreign company subsidiaries (9,602), 68% more than 10 years ago, and these subsidiaries generate 18.2% of total jobs.❑ Productive foreign investment in Catalonia in the first half of 2024 totalled €1.76 B, with a yearon-year increase of 112.9%.❑ Container traffic in the Port of Barcelona was dynamic (+21.4% year-on-year) and there was a record number of passengers at Josep Tarradellas airport from January to September, with more than 41.9 million passengers.❑ The dynamic job market in strategic sectors continued, especially in the digital, visitor economy and creative sectors (with year-on-year increases of +4.0, +3.9 and +3.1%, respectively).❑ International tourism is driving the recovery in consumer spending in the period when the agreement to open Sundays is in force.It rose +12.6%, 3 times more than Spanish tourism expenditure.❑ In September, 29.1% of the tourists who visited Barcelona did so for professional reasons, more than 13 points over the months of July and August.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.469 | 0.398 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".