Identifying Climate Refuges for Coral Reefs with a Life Histories Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is leading to widespread losses of corals, necessitating novel conservation strategies. One such strategy is the identification and protection of climate refugia where reefs escape the worst climate impacts. Recently, three types of coral climate refugia have been proposed: avoidance, resistance, and recovery. Here, we seek to address whether coral community composition and abundance of coral life histories can facilitate the classification of reefs into these refugia types. Using contemporary coral community composition from 122 surveyed reefs in four countries in the Western Indian Ocean from 2016-2019, we provide the first regional, empirical test of a proposed three-refugia reef framework. We found that the dominance of various life histories can classify reefs into these refugia types: avoidance refugia dominated by competitive corals; resistance refugia by stress-tolerant taxa; and recovery refugia by weedy life histories. Effectively protecting coral reefs requires an understanding of such diverse portfolios of climate refugia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".