Descriptive epidemiology of the first lumpy skin disease outbreak in Bhutan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral disease caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), belonging to the family Poxviridae and genus Capripoxvirus. The disease is endemic in most of the African and middle eastern countries and has recently spread to the Asian nations. The first outbreak of LSD in Bhutan was confirmed on the 5th of October 2020 in tissue samples collected from cattle suffering from disease with typical signs of LSD in a district called Samtse. A survey was conducted to describe and assess the extent of outbreak and determine the probable date of virus introduction. During the October month of 2020, 79 affected households were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The prevalence of lumpy skin disease during the survey in the affected farms ranged from 9-100%. The mean prevalence in the affected farms was 42.5% (38.07- 46.91). The district (Dzongkhag) prevalence of LSD was 0.5% (0.39-0.55). The formation of nodule and wound on skin were the most commonly reported signs. The earliest onset of symptoms of LSD was on 1 July 2020. Considering the incubation period of 14-28 days, it was likely that the disease was introduced between 3 and 17 June 2020. Despite being reported for the first time, cattle owners had a fairly good knowledge and perception about the disease. As LSD is a transboundary animal disease with arthropod vectors playing role in transmission, its elimination from the country will depend on the measures undertaken in the neighboring countries of the region. Therefore, effective control and elimination of LSD requires a concerted regional approach.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".