Influenza and Avian Influenza in Urban Bangladesh: Live Poultry Exposure, Seasonality, and Pandemic Risk at the Human-poultry Interface
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Influenza causes a substantial global burden, and reassortment between circulating human and avian influenza viruses poses a threat for pandemic emergence. The public health risks posed by pandemic influenza are particularly high in Bangladesh where dense, rapidly urbanizing populations and intensifying poultry production sectors are bringing humans and animals in closer contact. Using a One Health approach, this dissertation presents three studies on the epidemiology of influenza at the human-poultry interface. The first study describes the development and population representativeness of a probability-based mobile phone survey measuring live poultry exposure in Dhaka City Corporation (DCC), Bangladesh. The mobile phone survey achieved a relatively high response rate (52.2%) and produced a population-representative sample, requiring only minimal post-stratification adjustment, in this urban setting. Using this weighted survey data, the second study describes the frequency and patterns of exposure to live poultry in live poultry markets (LPMs) and in homes among adults in DCC. Almost three-quarters (74.2%, 95% CI: 70.9-77.2) of the population reported exposure to live poultry in the past year, with the majority reporting weekly contact. Visiting LPMs was more common amongst males (58.9%, 95% CI: 54.0-63.5) than females (40.3%, 95% CI 35.0-45.8), but females reported greater exposure through food preparation. Finally, the third study brought together 10-years of human and avian influenza surveillance data from hospital-based and LPM-based surveillance programs to characterize influenza seasonality at the sub-national level and examine co-seasonality in Bangladesh. Influenza displayed distinct seasonality in humans, with an annual peak in June-July (peak calendar-week: 27.6, 95% CI: 26.7-28.6). However, there was regional heterogeneity in seasonal characteristics, with metropolitan regions peaking earlier and epidemic spread following a spatial diffusion pattern. Comparatively, avian influenza displayed weak seasonality, with moderate year-round transmission. Together, these studies advance our understanding of influenza epidemiology and the potential risks for pandemic influenza emergence in Bangladesh. Results indicate that there continues to be ample opportunity for spillover of avian influenza infections into humans and high potential for viral reassortment between circulating influenza viruses. Study findings can be used by public health practitioners to make informed and actionable policy recommendations to support human and animal well-being.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".