Smoothed pseudo-population bootstrap methods with applications to finite population quantiles
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This article introduces smoothed pseudo-population bootstrap methods for the purposes of mean-squared error estimation and for constructing confidence intervals for finite population quantiles. In an independent and identically distributed context, it has been shown that resampling from a smoothed estimate of the distribution function instead of the usual empirical distribution function can improve the convergence rate of the bootstrap mean-squared error estimator of a sample quantile. We extend the smoothed bootstrap to the survey sampling framework by implementing it in pseudo-population bootstrap methods for high entropy, single-stage survey designs, such as simple random sampling without replacement, Poisson sampling, and randomized systematic proportional-to-size sampling. Given a kernel function and a bandwidth, it consists of smoothing the pseudo-population from which bootstrap samples are drawn using the original sampling design. Given that the implementation of the proposed algorithms requires the specification of the bandwidth, we develop a plug-in selection method along with a grid search selection method based on a bootstrap estimate of the mean squared error. Simulation results suggest that the smoothed approach offers improved efficiency compared to the standard pseudo-population bootstrap for estimating the uncertainty of a quantile estimator, together with mixed results regarding confidence interval coverage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.058 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".