Middle East Vision 2030

Opinion – Independent Observer July 25-31, 2025 Middle East - Vision 2030 Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Qatar Vision 2030 are obvious economic strategies of the Gulf nations, aiming to transform their economies from revenue-dependent on natural resources to more diversified and lucrative earnings-based ones. World Development Indicators (World Bank) indicate that the average per capita GDP growth of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members was only around 1 percent, since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, between these periods (2008-2024), only Saudi Arabia and Bahrain marked a significant GDP growth per capita at 57 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Compared to other emerging economies, such as ASEAN (Southeast Asia) or Mercosur (Latin America) countries, that percentage of growth was strikingly lower. ASEAN, for example, had an average GDP per capita increase of about 5 percent from 2008-2024. Similarly, Mercosur reported a modest growth of 5 percent during the same period. Adjusting their economic policies and optimizing the benefits from non-oil and gas sectors is thus a rational choice for the Gulf nations. To attain these goals, many have expressed their appreciation for the rapid expansion of the non-oil and gas sector in the Gulf market, such as the financial and banking sector, logistics and transportation, tourism, property and real estate. The recent Global Financial Centre Index (GFCI) released by Z/Yen and China Development Institute has ranked Dubai (UAE) in 12th place, in terms of the world’s leading financial hubs (cdi.org.cn). Qatar Airways has been honored as the 2025 World’s Best Airline. Despite its relative youth, the Port of Salalah in Oman was placed in second position, in the global Container Performance Index (2023), confirming it as the second most efficient port in the world. Considered as the world’s largest industrial development project, Jubail Industrial City in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia was awarded the UNESCO Learning City Award in 2021, in recognition of the region’s efforts to expand citizens’ knowledge and skills, health, and well-being. However, it could be difficult to sustain these exceptional achievements, mainly as a result of prolonged frictions among neighborhoods in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). They continue to reveal unstable economic development, while at the same time producing discontent among the youth. The Arab Barometer Survey (2024) from Princeton University, for example, recently revealed results indicating unrealistically high expectations of MENA citizens to emigrate to countries with a stronger economic environment. The survey included Tunisia, at the top of the list, followed by Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco. According to the study, the Gulf has become one of their major destinations, along with the United States, Canada, and Western European countries. While a discussion on immigrants is growing in developed countries, skilled and competent immigrants could be a potential workforce for industrial development in host nations. Besides, the Gulf countries’ substantial trade openness placed them vulnerable to global uncertainties. Conflicts and military disputes could disrupt logistics and transportation, which are crucial for international trade. So, how could those Gulf Countries sustain their economic transformation, and become an engine of development and stability in the MENA? This article attempts to show that there is significant room for the Gulf Nations to perform their strategic role in bringing peace and stability to the region, with strong regional coordination and other global partners. This essential role does not only promote more economic stability in MENA, but also amplifies the Gulf’s political and economic influence in world politics. Arab Cultural Linkage According to Arabacademy.com, Arabic is the official language of 24 countries across Asia and Africa. This means there should not be any language barrier to communicating a common aspiration for a significant interest of countries in these regions. The GCC, as a regional organization, could be more inclusive and generate more opportunities to share, such as human capital, technological advancement and institutional improvement. These resources are pivotal to augment the capability of the countries in the region to solve perpetual challenges – ones that could trigger more security issues, such as food shortages, droughts and energy defi-cits. In this case, the UNDP Human Development Report has classified Arab Gulf countries as having a very high human capital index. At the same time, several universities from the Gulf countries have been named in the top 150 world university rankings by QS WUR, including KFUPM, King Saud University and Qatar University. These social modalities could bridge social and economic development in MENA, directing education, human capital and economic development in the respective countries. International university cooperation, joint degree programs and research collaboration are possible alternatives to consider. In return, such a move could produce a much more skilled workforce to support the thriving economy of the Gulf nations. Also, it will expand the purchasing capability of neighboring countries, which could become a powerful element in increasing exports and re-exports from the Gulf to the MENA market. Currently, Gulf exports to the MENA market only amounts to about 12 percent of its total exports globally. Additionally, social and economic cooperation could cultivate a rich Arab civilization, nuanced with advanced science & technology and cultural heritage. The broader conflict escalation in this region will not only negatively affect a future civilization, but will also signify a reluctance to move towards a better and more prosperous community. Thus, the ignorance of genocide and probable ethnic cleansing in Palestine will be a sorrowful tragedy in the history of world civilization. A Trusted International Partner Indeed, it will be a tough initiative for the Gulf nations to realize this great purpose. They need international support, as the role of international organizations in navigating global peace and stability is substantially limited. Thankfully, the Gulf countries have strong and friendly relationships with all countries around the world. It is an essential asset to connect with other Middle Powers, such as Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and other BRICS countries– those who share a common interest in nurturing peace and stability in the region. As expressed in their latest meeting in Brasilia, the Global South’s demand for international law supremacy, peace, and stability is a connecting platform, able to set up possible coordinated strategies and actions to end dehumanization in Palestine and other developing countries. Pressing for broader access to international humanitarian support in Gaza should become a top priority. Not limited to this partnership, the Gulf nations could also become a strategic bridge between the EU and MENA, to overcome a growing concern about the rising number of migrants from MENA. Greece, for example, has recently stopped asylum requests from North Africans. In Italy, according to the operational data portal of UNHCR, thousands of sea arrivals flooded in from MENA countries, including Egypt, the Syrian Arab Republic and Sudan, during the first half of 2025. International migration has become one of the most significant matters in EU foreign policy. Hence, with their cultural proximity and substantial influence in the region, the Gulf nations could become strategic partners for the EU in overcoming this external challenge. In summary, the Gulf has an extensive and strategic role in promoting peace and development in MENA. While it could contribute to more sustainable economic development in the Gulf, these efforts could expand the region’s global influence and raise more international recognition for its active engagement in solving global matters. Building collaboration with middle power countries in BRICS and the developed economies of the EU will strengthen these challenging efforts and secure more humanity in Arab Civilization. Andi Kurniawan A Lecturer in International Relations UPN Veteran Jakarta, Indonesia

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