Bibliographic record
Abstract
This stock is assessed using an integrated state-space model, which incorporates landings and catch-at-age (1959–2020), time-varying natural mortality informed by trends in cod condition, and includes abundance indices from research surveys using bottom trawls conducted by Canada (1983–2021), France (1978–91), industry (Groundfish Enterprise Allocation Council [GEAC],1998–2005), and standardized catch rate indices from inshore Sentinel gillnet and line-trawl surveys (1995–2020). Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) in 2022 is projected to be 31.5 kt (95% CI: 25.3–49.5 kt). SSB remains in the critical zone, at 48% (95% CI: 38–60%) of the Limit Reference Point (LRP) as defined by the DFO Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The stock and fishery are dominated by a single cohort (2011), which accounted for 29% of the SSB in 2021 and 45% of the commercial catch in 2020. Recruitment since the 2011 cohort has remained among the lowest in the time series. Natural mortality (M) is currently driving the dynamics of this stock. M has increased from the early 2000s and is estimated at 0.34 (ages 5–8) in 2021. Fishing mortality has been declining since 2000 and in 2021 is estimated to be 0.03, the lowest level since the moratorium (1994 to 1996). Ongoing warming trends, together with more recent increased dominance of warm water fishes, indicate that this ecosystem continues to experience structural changes. In this context, bottom-up effects are contributing to poor fish condition and high natural mortality of cod. Projection of the stock to 2024 was conducted assuming fishery removals ranging from 0 to 2.3 times an assumed catch of 1,346 t for 2021. Under these scenarios, there is a probability >99% that the stock will remain below the LRP between 2022 and the beginning of 2024. Stock growth is projected over the short term (to 2024) at probabilities of 50% and 75% with removals of 3,100 t and 1,600 t, respectively. However at the upper range of these catches stock decline in 2023 should be expected. When there are no removals in this period, the probability of stock growth is 93%. Consistency with the DFO decision-making framework incorporating the PA requires that removals from all sources must be kept at the lowest possible level until the stock clears the Critical Zone.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".