Science response : Outside yelloweye management procedure update

This Science Response (SR) evaluates the performance of new management procedures (MPs) for Outside Yelloweye Rockfish (OYE) fisheries against candidate management objectives that include alternative Target Reference Points (TRP). The scientific advice herein is intended to inform MP choices for 2023/24-2026/27 fishing years and support consultations with First Nations groups and stakeholders to determine reference points, management objectives, and rebuilding targets for OYE. The key tasks are as follows: 1. Proposing candidate management objectives for North and South OYE stocks to allow evaluation and ranking of management procedures (MPs), including i) risk tolerance for short-term (10 years) declines in biomass, ii) probability thresholds for maintaining biomass above the limit reference point (LRP) of 0.4BMSY and target reference point (TRP) over the long-term (1.5 OYE generations), and iii) fishery objectives to maintain annual total allowable catch (TAC) above 200 t coastwide (125 t in North, 75 t in South) and limit annual change in TACs to less than 20% and less than 30 t for North and South stocks. 2. Visualizing the catch vs conservation trade-offs associated with alternative TRP choices for the weighted OYE operating model grid. Alternative TRP choices (0.8BMSY , BMSY , 1.2BMSY ) indicate median annual coastwide TACs over the next 10-years would vary between 396 t (217 t in North, 179 t in South) for 0.8BMSY , 308 t (173 t in North, 135 t in South) for BMSY , and 248 t (140 t in North, 108 t in South) for 1.2BMSY . 3. Defining empirical MPs to be evaluated using the closed-loop simulation framework developed for OYE during the 2019 rebuilding analyses. The MPs evaluated include i) the current index based MP (idxSmuv) used to set TACs since 2020, and ii) new empirical MP options using the hard bottom longline (HBLL) stratified random survey index with different choices for moving averages (3 YR, 5 YR, 7 YR) and TRPs (0.8BMSY , BMSY , 1.2BMSY ). The simulation results will be used to identify a candidate 2023 management strategy that will be used until the 2026/2027 fishing year. 4. Drafting a plan and timeline for updating operating models and re-evaluating MPs. The next operating model update and assessment of stock status will begin in 2024/25 with plans for completion in 2025/26, after which there will be a new evaluation of MPs to provide TAC advice for the 2027/28 fishing year. 5. Preparing a summary table clarifying OYE stock status and how the candidate 2023 management strategy complies with the Fish Stocks Provisions and the Sustainable Fisheries Framework (Table 1). Table 1 provides results from the HBLL 3 YR MP; however, a final decision for OYE MPs for 2023-2026 has not been made and additional MPs (HBLL 5YR and HBLL 7YR) with similar performance are presented in the report (Table 7). The current OYE stock status is above the LRP with 100% probability coastwide, 100% probability in the North, and 98% probability in the South, indicating a rebuilding plan is not required. The new harvest control rule proposed uses the LRP (0.4BMSY ) as the lower control point, the upper stock reference (0.8BMSY ) as the upper control point and removal reference rates less than FMSY (0.95FMSY in North, 0.99FMSY in South). Simulations that used HBLL MPs to set future OYE TACs indicate robust performance relative to the conservation, target, and fishery management objectives, with trade-offs in catch associated with different TRP choices. In the north, the current idxSmuv MP has similar conservation performance to the HBLL MPs using a BMSY TRP, but provides 27-29 t less annual catch. In the south, the current idxSmuv MP has greater conservation performance than all HBLL MPs with a very high (95%) probability of biomass exceeding BMSY after 1.5 generations (2081); however, it generates 41-46 t lower TACs than the HBLL MPs using a BMSY TRP. Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested that Science Branch provide new management procedures that include analysis of trade-offs between catch and alternative Target Reference Points, recommend a candidate rebuilding target, and estimate the current stock status relative to the candidate rebuilding target. This Science Response results from the regional peer review of June 15, 2023 on the Management Procedures Update and Catch Advice for 2023/24-2026/27 Fishing Seasons for Outside Yelloweye Rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) in the Pacific Region.

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