NL Divs 2HJ3KLNOP4R Snow Crab Stock Assessment in 2024
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Status With status quo removals in 2025, Assessment Divisions (ADs) 3LNO and 3Ps are projected to be in the Healthy Zone of the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) Snow Crab Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework, while ADs 2HJ and 3K are projected to be in the Cautious Zone. Recent and ongoing data deficiencies result in the exclusion of AD 4R3Pn from the NL Snow Crab PA Framework. Trends The overall exploitable biomass index has increased from historic lows in 2016 to 2018. In 2024, the exploitable biomass index remained near the same level as 2023. There have been declines in the exploitable biomass indices in ADs 3K and 3Ps over the last two years. Overall abundance indices of pre-recruit, small male, and mature female crab have declined and are near the lowest levels observed. The overall pre-recruit abundance index indicates poor recruitment prospects in the next 2–4 years. Fishery Exploitation Rate Indices (ERIs) decreased in most ADs in recent years. However, status quo removals in 2025 would result in ERIs outside the range permitted in the PA Framework in ADs 3K and 3Ps. The ERI is high in AD 4R3Pn. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The warm phase in ocean climate that started around 2020 continues, with warm bottom temperatures and record high sea surface temperature in 2024. Sustained warm ocean conditions are considered unfavorable for Snow Crab productivity. Total ecosystem biomass levels are approaching the post-collapse highs of the 2010s, with increases being driven by groundfish. Fish predation mortality on Snow Crab peaked in the mid-late 2010s and after some decline has been trending upwards since 2020. Current hinder future growth. Short-term predictions of exploitable biomass based on climate variables indicate resource growth may be limited. Stock Advice As per the NL Snow Crab PA Framework and given that ADs 3LNO and 3Ps are in the Healthy Zone, the exploitation rates should not exceed 42%. As per the NL Snow Crab PA Framework and given that ADs 2HJ and 3K are in the Cautious Zone, the exploitation rates should not exceed 35%. While the current overall level of exploitable biomass is generally not a concern, unfavorable ecosystem conditions and low abundances of small Snow Crab indicate that stock productivity is expected to be poor in the near and medium term.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.029 | 0.011 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".