Assessment of the Estuary and Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence Snow Crabe Stocks in 2024
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Status In 2024, the combined index was below the historical average for areas 14, 16, 17 and 16A, similar to that for Area 12C, and above the historical average for areas 15 and 13. The lack of reference points for stocks in areas 13–17, 12C and 16A prevents assessment of their status under the Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach. In Area 12A, biomass indicators placed the stock at the lower boundary of the cautious zone in 2024 according to the precautionary approach, following an extended period in the critical zone since 2014. Trends Between 2023 and 2024, the combined index declined in areas 17 (-32%), 16 (-8%), 16A (- 38%) and 14 (-31%), remained stable in Area 12C (+2%), and increased in areas 13 (+11%) and 15 (+13%). In Area 12A, commercial biomass indicators under the precautionary approach increased significantly between 2023 and 2024, after remaining at consistently low values since 2014. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations Over the past 15 years, warming waters have mainly led to a reduction in suitable thermal habitats for adults and juveniles in the westernmost areas, while habitat gains have been observed in the easternmost areas. Rising water temperatures could influence the distribution, productivity, growth and size-at-terminal moult of snow crab in Quebec’s coastal waters. The impacts could vary significantly across fishing areas. Stock Advice Snow crab abundance, which is cyclical in nature, appears to still be on the upswing in areas 12C, 13 and 15, with high recruit abundance observed in post-season surveys in 2024. In Area 13, residual abundance was high, especially in the portion along the north shore. These observations suggest that a proportional increase in removals in 2025, relative to the combined index, should not pose a risk to the resource in these areas in the short term. Following a decade in the critical zone, the stock in Area 12A reached the lower boundary of the cautious zone for the first time in 2024. Therefore, a conservative harvesting approach should be maintained in 2025. In Area 16, recruit abundance decreased in 2024, while residual abundance increased. The substantial rise in pre-recruits suggests that recruitment to the fishery could potentially increase over the medium term (≥ 2 years). However, the average size of commercial crabs declined to below the historical average. Until a stronger upturn in recruitment occurs, a conservative harvesting approach is recommended, based on the direction and strength of the combined index for 2025. The sharp decline in the combined index in areas 14, 17 and 16A suggests a substantial reduction in residual abundance and/or the abundance of recruits in the upcoming fishing season. These declines in commercial abundance, along with smaller average sizes of commercial crabs, indicate that removals should be significantly reduced in 2025 to alleviate fishing pressure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".