2023 stock status update 4VWX herring
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Maritimes Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Resource Management has requested that DFO Science conduct a stock status update of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions 4VWX Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus) (henceforth referred to as 4VWX Herring) in support of decision-making for the 2023 fishery. The last full assessment of 4VWX Herring was conducted in March 2022 (DFO 2022a). As defined in the Terms of Reference, the objectives for this update were as follows: Evaluate the indicators and assess the fishery with respect to the Limit Reference Point (LRP) for Southwest Nova Scotia/Bay of Fundy spawning component (SWNS/BoF). Update and review information on the other spawning components (Offshore Scotian Shelf, Coastal Nova Scotia, Southwest New Brunswick migrant juvenile fishery). Update and evaluate the candidate Management Procedures (MPs) on the Reference Set of Operating Models for the SWNS/BoF component. Advise on the probability of rebuilding above the LRP over the projection period for each candidate MP for the SWNS/BoF component. Assess whether exceptional circumstances are triggered for the SWNS/BoF component. Estimate Tmin, where Tmin is the time SWNS/BoF herring would take to rebuild above the LRP with a high probability in the absence of fishing (F=0). Estimate the Probability of Preventable Decline from Year 3 to Year 8 in the projections for each MP. The biological and fishery information for 4VWX Herring forms the basis for establishing harvest levels for the 2023 fishery, as required in the Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP). An assessment of biological and fishery information for 4VWX Herring is provided in this Science Response. For the SWNS/BoF spawning component of 4VWX Herring, an assessment framework was conducted using a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) from 2019 to 2022 (Singh et al. 2020, Carruthers et al. 2023, Barrett In press). The stock status of the SWNS/BoF component is estimated by comparing the 3-year moving average of the acoustic index of spawning stock biomass for German Bank and Scots Bay to the Limit Reference Point defined in terms of the acoustic index (LRP, Clark et al. 2012), and also accounts for turnover of spawners at these grounds (DFO 2018). This science advice uses the 2022 assessment framework to identify candidate MPs that have a high probability of rebuilding the SWNS/BoF component above the LRP, evaluate trade-offs among other management objectives, and assess whether exceptional circumstances are triggered. This advice builds on the advice from 2022 (DFO 2022a) after which an MP was not selected. For other spawning components of 4VWX Herring, indicators of relative status and landings are reported herein based on methodologies presented in the 2018 stock assessment (DFO 2018). This Science Response Report results from the regional peer review of April 3, 2023, on Update of Stock Status for Herring in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Fishing Areas 4VWX.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.022 | 0.011 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".