NAFO subdivision 3Ps Atlantic cod stock assessment in 2023
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Status The 2024 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) is projected to be below the Limit Reference Point (LRP) with a greater than 99% probability. The stock remains in the Critical Zone. Trends The stock has been in the Critical Zone since 2000, with SSB remaining at or near time series lows without trend since 2009. SSB in 2024 is projected to be 35.5 kt (95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 27.1–46.8), which is 54% (95% CI = 41–71%) of the LRP (66 kt). Recruitment is impaired and has remained well below the time series average since 1993. Natural mortality (M) increased from the early 2000s and has varied without trend at a relatively high level since 2008. The population weighted M estimate for ages 5–8 in 2023 is 0.35. Fishing mortality (F) has been declining since 2000. The population weighted F estimate for ages 5–8 in 2023 is 0.02. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations Ocean temperatures in 3Ps were at record highs in 2021–22. Ongoing warming and associated increased dominance of silver hake indicate that this ecosystem continues to experience structural changes. The impact of these changes are not fully understood but have been associated with reductions in stock productivity. Stock Advice Given the low status and productivity of the stock, continued fishery removals delay recovery prospects. Removals from all sources should be at the lowest possible level until the stock clears the Critical Zone. Under the adopted management procedure, stock growth in the short term (2027) will not be achieved with a high (>75%) probability. Under no removals a high probability of growth is achieved. Other levels of removals were not evaluated in this meeting. The stock remains in the Critical Zone in all cases. The age structure of the fishery is no longer consistent with that applied in the previous testing and adoption of the management procedure. The consequence of this change for stock rebuilding should be examined.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".