Assessment of the Northern Contingent of Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in 2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This document presents the data and methods used to assess the stock status of the northern contingent of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic. The presented and reviewed stock status indicators (February 20-22, 2023) were estimated with an age structured stock assessment model that was fitted to landings data, landings-at-age and an egg survey index. The estimated 2022 spawning stock biomass (SSB) was at 42% of the Limit Reference Point, defined as 40% of SSB40%, placing the stock in the Critical zone of the Precautionary Approach Framework. The stock has been in or near the Critical zone since 2011. Recent average recruitment (2012-2022) has been low relative to the previous period (1969-2011) and the age structure of the stock remained truncated. Short-term projections indicated that the probability of the SSB leaving the Critical zone by 2025 varied around 37.5% for a total allowable catch (TAC) of 0 t and around 16% for a TAC of 8,000 t, given continued U.S. fishing and recreational fishing in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".