Changes in the age young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people start smoking, 2002-2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
© 2019 Heris et al. This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International Licence, which allows others to redistribute, adapt and share this work non-commercially provided they attribute the work and any adapted version of it is distributed under the same Creative Commons licence terms. <br>Objectives: To analyse trends in smoking initiation and prevalence among young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (Indigenous people) to identify which stages of adolescence and young adulthood prevention activities should target. Methods: Secondary analysis of 'daily smoking' and 'never smoked' responses from Indigenous people aged 15 years and older in five national Indigenous surveys from 2002 to 2014-15, and of initiation age among those aged 18 years and older in 2004-05 and 2012-13. Results: Smoking prevalence among 15-24-year-olds declined significantly between 2002 and 2014-15, falling 14 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] 8, 21) from 45% to 31%. The greatest decline was among 18-19-year-olds, with a decrease of 17 percentage points (95% CI 4, 29) from 48% to 31%. The proportion of 15-24-year-olds who had never smoked increased significantly, by 12 percentage points (95% CI 6, 18) from 44% in 2002 to 56% in 2014-15. Between 2004-05 and 2012-13, the proportion of 18-24-year-old smokers who had started daily smoking before the age of 18 years declined significantly, down 8 percentage points (95% CI 2, 15) from 84% to 76%. In 2012-13, 24% of smokers aged 18-24 years started daily smoking after age 18, half (49%) started between 15 and 18 years, and around a quarter started before age 15. Conclusions: There have been significant declines in smoking prevalence among young Indigenous people between 2002 and 2014-15 as fewer take up smoking. Smoking initiation occurs over a wide age range. The majority of daily smokers started before the age of 18; however, initiation may be delayed until early adulthood for an increasing number. The challenge for tobacco prevention is to reach young people in early adolescence and continue to reinforce smoke-free intentions into young adulthood.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".