Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2008. With Special ArticleAn Analysis of Revisions to Growth Rates in theIrish Quarterly National Accounts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This Commentary is being prepared at a time when the world’s financial markets are in a state of unprecedented turmoil. The most recent events represent a serious escalation of the crisis. The failure of the US Congress to pass the Bush Administration’s first bail-out plan dominated the financial landscape last week, along with bail-outs such as those of Fortis in the Netherlands and Hypo Real Estate in Germany and the nationalisation of Bradford and Bingley in the UK. While the passing of the second Bush bail-out plan last Friday is a welcome development in terms of halting the slide towards chaos, the international situation still remains critical. The Government here has moved to restore confidence to the Irish financial system through its guarantees of all deposits and borrowings of six financial institutions. Other economic news within Ireland which has impacted upon our analysis includes poor third quarter Exchequer returns and an alarming rise in the numbers on the Live Register.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.048 | 0.033 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".