Bibliographic record
Abstract
North America is currently a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere, contributing to the global buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and associated changes in the Earth's climate. In 2003, North America emitted nearly two billion metric tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere as CO2. North America's fossil-fuel emissions in 2003 (1856 million metric tonnes of carbon ±10% with 95% certainty) were 27% of global emissions. Approximately 85% of those emissions were from the USA, 9% from Canada, and 6% from Mexico. The combustion of fossil fuels for commercial energy (primarily electricity) is the single largest contributor, accounting for approximately 42% of North American fossil emissions in 2003. Transportation is the second largest, accounting for 31% of total emissions. There are also globally important carbon sinks in North America. In 2003, growing vegetation in North America removed approximately 500 million tonnes of carbon per year (±50%) from the atmosphere and stored it as plant material and soil organic matter. This land sink is equivalent to approximately 30% of the fossil-fuel emissions from North America. The imbalance between the fossil-fuel source and the sink on land is a net release to the atmosphere of 1350 million metric tonnes of carbon year (±25%). Approximately 50% of North America's terrestrial sink is due to the regrowth of forests in the USA on former agricultural land that was last cultivated decades ago, and on timberland recovering from harvest. Other sinks are relatively small and not well quantified with uncertainties of 100% or more. The future of the North American terrestrial sink is also highly uncertain. The contribution of forest regrowth is expected to decline as the maturing forests grow more slowly and take up less CO2 from the atmosphere. However, the response of regrowing forests and other sinks to climatic changes and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is highly uncertain. The large difference between current sources and sinks and the expectation that the difference could become large if the growth of fossil-fuel emissions continues and land sinks decline suggest that addressing imbalances in the North American carbon budget will likely require actions focused on reducing fossil-fuel emissions. Options to enhance sinks (growing forests or sequestering carbon in agricultural soils) can contribute, but enhancing sinks alone is likely insufficient to deal with either the current or future imbalance. Options to reduce emissions include efficiency improvement, fuel switching, and technologies such as carbon capture and geological storage. Implementing these options will likely require an array of policy instruments at local, regional, national, and international levels, ranging from the encouragement of voluntary actions to economic incentives, tradable emissions permits, and regulations. Meeting the demand for information by decision makers will likely require new modes of research characterized by close collaboration between scientists and carbon management stakeholders.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".