EUROFRAME - European Forecasting Network. Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Forecasts and Policy AnalysisSpring Report 2006. Special Policy Issue: Convergence and Integration of the New Member States to the Euro Area. March 2006
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Following a period of sluggish growth, the Euro Area is showing signs of recovery and this is reflected in the GDP growth forecasts for 2006 and 2007. Growth in the final quarter of 2005 was weak at only 0.3 per cent, but we are forecasting a recovery to a stronger rate of 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2006. We expect this performance to be maintained through 2006 and so we forecast GDP growth of 2.2 per cent for this year. For 2007, we forecast a slightly slower rate of GDP growth, 2 per cent. The forecast also includes an expectation of continued strong growth in the world economy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.035 | 0.033 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".