Quantifying the Risk of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in Ontario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) has been detected in Ontario and threatens the province’s eastern hemlock forests. A risk matrix was created to predict HWA establishment (climatic suitability) and impact (host abundance) in Ontario. As well, inventories of active HWA infestations were conducted to quantify changes to forest health and structure associated with invasion. I found that HWA can infest townships across southwestern Ontario, but the low proportion of eastern hemlock will limit its impact. Under a low emissions climate change scenario, most eastern hemlock in the province will be threatened by mid-century. HWA infestation significantly altered tree species composition, promoting the growth of shade-tolerant hardwoods, and increased light availability, which altered understory herb and shrub communities, and increased the proportion of non-native species 3-fold. Overall, Ontario’s eastern hemlock stands showed significant decline from HWA infestation, but experienced slower tree/stand mortality compared to predictions made in the US.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".