Economic De-integration in North America and Foreign Direct Investment from Japan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We investigate the impact of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and the resumption of auto tariffs under the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, on trade in North America and foreign direct investment (FDI) from Japan, from the perspective of the auto industry. The results of policy simulation analyses with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model are as follows. Canada and Mexico would benefit from US steel and aluminum tariffs, being alternative trade partners with both the US and other countries. Due to the auto tariffs on intra-North America exports, Canada and Mexico would lose a large part of the windfall benefits from the US steel and aluminum tariffs. Japan’s FDI in Canada and Mexico would fall sharply. The more de-integrated North American economies become, the more Japan would regain its auto production, although at a painful cost in terms of welfare. That negative welfare impact would be neutralized by abolition of auto tariffs with the US.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".