The impact of late-nineteenth-century tariffs on the productivity of European industries (1870–1930)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The last quarter of the nineteenth century witnessed a spectacular revival of tariff protectionism in Europe, following decades of continuous expansion of world trade and trade liberalisation, which brought tariff barriers down to historical lows. A first round of tariffs were passed in virtually all the Continental countries3 at the juncture of the 1870s and 1880s, primarily to fend off the ‘grain invasion’ from the ‘new worlds’ (Kindleberger, 1975; O’Rourke, 1997) and isolate domestic farmers from outside competition: in Italy in 1878, in Germany in 1879, in France in 1881. These proved inadequate, however, and duties had to be raised and extended in the following decades (in 1887 and 1895 in Italy, in 1892 and 1910 in France, in 1902 in Germany) while other countries (those with control on their trade policy4) followed suit when time came to renew their trade agreements with their main partners. Only a handful held steadfastly to the free-trade stance they had committed themselves to previously (most notably Denmark, Holland and Britain).5
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".