A model of the anticipated changes to shipping noise in the Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The decrease in ice coverage, particularly in the summer, has been well documented. The future reduction of ice extend, and the extended ice free season will increase the number of vessels transiting from Europe to Asia via the Northern Passage and the central Arctic Ocean. In an effort to begin to quantify this impact, and to evalute metrics for it's impact upon sensitive and endangered sealife, the Arctic Council (Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment), the World Wildlife Fund, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Transport Canada, funded a study to develop an economic model for shipping forecasts, an environmental model for ocean/ice cover and to feed this into a global soundscape model to compare sound pressure levels in various acoustic bands for 2030 and 2019. These results were published by PAME in May 2024 (https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/bitstreams/99cf703f-cbf4-4049-a470-939111a33eaa/download). We present the shipping and acoustic models and analysis methodology and the results of this study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".