Bearing capacity of pile foundations in Canadian permafrost regions in a warmer climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Arctic experienced unprecedented climatic changes in the past few decades and according to the intergovernmental panel on climate change, the warming is projected to continue at twice the rate as for the rest of the world. Adaptation of engineering systems for this region cannot therefore be further delayed. However, one of the major barriers to studies focused on adapting northern engineering systems is the lack of climate change information at the spatial and temporal scales required for engineering applications. This study, to inform decision making, investigates pile bearing capacity for selected pile configurations for the Canadian permafrost regions (Nunavut and Northwest Territories), for current and future climates, using the very first ultra-high resolution (4 km) climate change simulation developed for the region using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, for a high emission scenario. Comparison of the ultra-high-resolution GEM simulation, driven by reanalysis, with available observations confirms the model’s ability in representing near-surface permafrost, particularly the continuous extent, and related climate variables. The estimated adfreeze force contribution to the total bearing capacity, for current climate, informed by the reanalysis-driven GEM simulation, for a 5-m cement pile, is found to be of the order of 10% for regions with shallow bedrock and up to 70% for regions with deeper bedrock, within the study domain. Application of the GEM climate change simulation outputs, for RCP8.5 scenario, suggest increases to the active layer thickness, associated with increased ground temperatures, in the 1-3 m range for regions in the southern boundaries of the continuous permafrost extent. Subsequently, decreases to adfreeze force are projected to be in the 5-30% range by 2040, with the largest differences noted for regions with deeper bedrock and warmer permafrost. For steel piles, which are recommended by the Canadian Standard Association, of same configuration, the projected relative changes will be of similar magnitude, although the adfreeze forces are only about 70% of that for cement piles. Further downscaling to 250 m resolution using the land model of GEM for the Slave Geological-Grays Bay corridor, where future developments are planned, including an all-season road, enables better estimation of bearing capacity for realistic pile scenarios such as those for bridges (in thick layer of sediments) used for river crossings. Due to the wide variation of pile materials, lengths and installation methods, site specific information can be developed from the framework developed in this study. The results of this study, while providing the first regional-scale analysis for pile bearing capacity over the region, will form the basis for additional detailed investigations on climate-infrastructure interactions and climate resiliency studies
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".