Multi-century impacts of ice retreat on sea level and tides in Hudson Bay
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sea level change associated with ongoing and future melting of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets is one of the most threatening consequences of anthropogenic climate change and will greatly impact low-lying coastal communities. Regional sea level changes associated with changes in grounded ice mass can differ significantly from the globally averaged value due to gravitational, rotational, and Earth deformational effects. In addition to contemporary changes in the current polar ice sheets, past changes in ice sheet configurations over the last glacial cycle also contribute significantly to regional trends in sea level. This is especially true in the case of Hudson Bay, a shallow inland sea in northern Canada that was ice covered at the Last Glacial Maximum leading to ongoing crustal uplift and sea level fall of up to 1cm/year in the modern. It remains to be seen whether this trend will continue in the coming centuries as the polar ice sheets retreat because it is unclear what the dominant contributor to sea level change in the Hudson Bay will be, or even what the sign will be. Sea level changes in turn affect tidal dynamics due to the sensitivity of tides to water depth, and recent work has suggested that future sea level changes as a consequence of ice sheet collapse will impact tides globally. However, previous studies on both modern and future tides have been unable to accurately model tides in Hudson Bay due to large uncertainties in bathymetry in the bay. This thesis addresses the aforementioned knowledge gaps and quantifies the impact of past and future ice sheet retreat on sea level and tides in the Hudson Bay region. In Chapter 1, I outline the background theory on sea level and tides. In Chapter 2, I present a paper, submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, in which coauthors and I model sea level changes over the next 500 years associated with the combined effects of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment and future ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and the resulting changes in ocean tides in Hudson Bay. To establish an initial condition for the simulations, we investigate the accuracy of current bathymetry datasets in reproducing modern ocean tides measured from satellite observations. We produce a new, improved bathymetry dataset in the bay constrained, for the first time, using tide observations. It is shown that the Antarctic ice loss scenario considered determines the sign and magnitude of sea level and tide changes in the Hudson Bay region, with the largest changes projected in the adjacent Hudson Strait. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that future sea level rise would greatly affect tidal energy dissipation in the region, which could have significant and widespread impacts on the global tidal energy balance. Chapter 3 concludes this thesis with a discussion and recommendations for future directions of research and the consequences of our results on navigation, ecosystems, and societies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".