Simulation of glacial inceptions with the "green" McGill paleoclimate model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) was used to simulate the past and future glacial inceptions. This model of intermediate complexity was first run between 122 and 80 kyr BP (Before Present). After some parameter tuning, the MPM simulated the last glacial inception at 119 kyr BP. The recent addition of a vegetation component in the model led to an improvement of the results, especially for the ice sheet distribution over Eurasia. The MPM was then run to simulate projections of the climate for the next 100 kyr and possibly the next glacial inception. When forced by a constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the model predicted three possible evolutions for the ice volume: an imminent glacial inception (low CO2 levels), a glacial inception in 50 kyr (intermediate CO2 levels) or no glacial inception during the next 100 kyr (CO2 levels of 370 ppm and higher). This is mainly due to the exceptional configuration of the future variations of the summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The MPM also responded realistically to rapid CO2 changes. If a global warming episode was included at the beginning of the 100-kyr run, the evolution of the climate was slightly different and the threshold over which no glacial inception occurred was lower (300 ppm).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".