Statistical Time-Series Models for Long-Range Public Health Trend Forecasting: A Review and Conceptual Framework
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Long-range forecasting of public health trends is critical for evidence-based health system capacity planning, pharmaceutical supply chain management, and health equity investment. This paper presents a comprehensive review of statistical time-series modelling approaches for long-range public health trend forecasting across five domains: infectious disease incidence, chronic disease prevalence projection, healthcare utilisation and demand forecasting, pharmaceutical supply chain demand forecasting, and climate-health trend forecasting. ARIMA models, exponential smoothing state space ETS models, Bayesian structural time-series models, and hybrid statistical and machine learning approaches are systematically evaluated. An R-based implementation framework using the forecast, tidyverse, ggplot2, dplyr, and lubridate packages provides a reproducible methodological template. A responsible public health forecasting framework and comparative model performance table are proposed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.022 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".