WP series: Mathematics Stagnation Nation series for the USA (Part 2) Math (Grade 4 & 8) stagnations of the 50 states of the United States: national, states, and cities & Their past growth compared to the projected MMU1 impacts on math as upheavals
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this visual timeline -driven observational report and analysis based on the math grades 4 and 8 of the NAEP (the National Re port Card) of the USA 1992 -2015 (during 23 years), we demonstrate that the following 7 key points : 1) for the 50 USA states, the math stagnations are real, not something to wisp away as the stagnations kicked in around 2003 -2007 to the majority of the USA states for the math grade 4; 3) the math stagnations seemed to kick in a bit of time lag for the math grade 8 some years after the math stagnations kicking in for the math grade 4; 4) we observed this for the entire 50 states a gainst the national (public) average timelines; 5) the math stagnations even for the fastest math growing states out of the 50 states; 6) outside the 50 USA states, DC and DoDEA haven't had full-blown math stagnations yet, but their growths have slowed dow n significantly around 2013 - 2015; 7) all their timeline math growths plotted against the expect MMU
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it