The U.S. Economy . . . the Lack of an Ignition Catalyst

The information in this forecast is gathered by the Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither the Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them. Jack Malehorn is a professor at Georgia Military College (Milledgeville, Georgia). He is on the Editorial Review Board to the Journal of Business Forecasting. He has worked as President and CEO of The Black Hill Manufacturing Co., and COO of NorCom Advanced Technologies. He has also worked as Chief Economist for United Telephone Company of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which is an operating company of Sprint. He has taught as an Adjunct Professor at Johns-Hopkins University, Graduate School of Business. For any comments and suggestions, contact him by email at Jmalehorn@yahoo.comPARTICIPANTS I Beacon Economics = LA, California; Conf Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy, com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP U.S. Bank = U.S. Bank & Nuveen Capital Asset Management = Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.As of now, a tremendous amount of anxiety envelops the U.S. economy. Many assumed that the culmination of the presidential election would provide for a clearer path entering the New Year. Instead, almost before the final votes were counted, the emphasis shifted from who would win to the cliff looming over the horizon. Rajeev Dhawan, Head of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business, points out in his latest Forecast of the Nation the amount and degree of domestic confusion spearheaded by the uncertainty in the nation's capital. The plight of the nation's economy rests almost solely on the likelihood of the Administration and Congress resolving the fiscal impasse surrounding the negotiated deal of tax increases and spending cuts mitigating the impending fiscal cliff. In addition, Dhawan highlights the fact that regardless of the outcome in Washington, little if any boost will occur from the global economies, in particular Europe and Asia. …

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