An integrated water quality modeling system with dynamic remote sensing feedback
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A coupled hydrodynamic-optical water quality modeling system based on Dynamic Data Driven Applications Systems (DDDAS) concepts that assimilates remote sensing data into a hydrodynamic model was developed and tested. The modeling system includes the hydrodynamic model (ALGE), a radiative transfer model (Hydrolight), and remote imagery (MODIS) as a dynamic feedback. The DDDAS was implemented through an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) with a small ensemble space. Large scale thermal structure and circulation patterns in Lake Ontario were simulated during the spring and summer seasons. High-resolution stream plume studies were performed in Conesus Lake and for the plume of the Niagara River in Lake Ontario. This work provided validation of the capabilities of the ALGE code to simulate the transport of sediment and passive tracer. Although the ALGE model produces predictions of the distribution of the TSS constituents, visual examination of MODIS 250 m reflectance data clearly shows discrepancies between themodel TSS output and the remote sensing data. These errors are due to the uncertainties in model physics, parameters, and forcing conditions. A Kalman filter-based method was implemented in this research to provide a better estimate of the modeled TSS. MODIS 250 m reflectance data was used as a dynamic feedback in EnKF. A test was performed at the single simulation grid point at the Genesee River mouth to validate the performance of the EnKF method. The EnKF estimate and the ensemble mean had similar and lower RMSE than any single run. Further validation was undertaken to examine the effects of assimilating MODIS data for all grid points to estimate the plume dissipation. Results show that the spatial filtering via an EnKF is capable of capturing the episodic nature of storm events by usingMODIS data as feedback. In this case the EnKF estimate RMSE is considerably smaller than the ensemble mean RMSE.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it