Robust Statistical Methods for Analysis of Ship Motion Simulation Results
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Simulation of ship motion is becoming increasingly more viable as a method for estimating the value of parameters that can be used for design, life-cycle management, risk analysis, developing and validating operational tactics, training, etc. It is vitally important to be able to draw sound conclusions from the simulation results. An examination of the process for obtaining parameter estimates and the means of determining their reliability is key to evaluating the confidence that can be placed in the results and avoiding drawing inappropriate conclusions from the simulation results. An extension of Chebyshev's Theorem was developed to provide a robust general tool to provide a conservative estimate of the probability that the parameter is within a specific interval. In addition, a method for determining the number of simulation runs required is suggested.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it