Bibliographic record
Abstract
PARTICIPANTS I Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; IFIS= IFIS Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.The year 2014 will not be remembered for dramatic improvement in output and employment. Rather, there has been a continuation of the prior five years of gradual steady growth. Concern over the U. S. economy backsliding has subsided. There are some risks in both domestic and international financial markets, but they seem unlikely to derail the expansion at this time, according to Ray Perryman of Perryman Group. Consensus is projecting GDP to grow at the rate of 2.4% during the consensus period. Job gains in better paying jobs are expected to boost employment and real income, which are critical for continued economic expansion, provided the harsh winter of 2013-2014 is not repeated.CONSUMERSConsensus expects to remain cautious for several reasons. Unemployment is expected to remain close to 6%. Large numbers of discouraged workers have left the market, although there are many who are back in school for learning new skills. Consensus data reported here show a declining PCE/PDI ratio despite gradual improvement in employment numbers as well as historically low interest rates on savings. Therefore, growth in demand will remain steady, but not too strong to trigger inflation, which is the concern of the Fed.FIRMSUnemployment is expected to hit the 6% mark. Gradual growth rate in employment and income, combined with stable wages, have created optimism for firms as reflected in Non-Residential Fixed Investment. Consensus expects nonresidential capital investment to grow at the rate of 4.7% during the consensus period, which is almost double the rate of the expected GDP growth. Long-term unemployment has made workers cautious about asking for wage hikes that contributed to wage stability. …
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".