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Record W869473736 · doi:10.5351/ckss.2009.16.1.041

Seasonal Adjustment on Chain-Linking

2009· article· en· W869473736 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueCommunications for Statistical Applications and Methods · 2009
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicRegional Economic and Spatial Analysis
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSeasonalityChain (unit)EconometricsSeasonal adjustmentQuarter (Canadian coin)Volume (thermodynamics)EconomicsStatisticsEnvironmental scienceMathematicsGeographyVariable (mathematics)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

1990년대 들어 정보통신산업을 중심으로 기술혁신이 급속히 진행되면서 고정가중법에 의한 실질 GDP 통계의 현실반영도가 저하됨에 따라 연쇄가중법의 도입 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 연쇄가중법의 도입은 전기비 성장률의 작성 기준이 되는 계절조정계열산출에도 영향을 미치게 되며 특히 연간법, 특정분기법, 전년 동분기법 등 분기 연환지수의 연결방식에 따라 시계열의 계절패턴이 달라질 수 있어 이를 적절히 반영할 수 있는 계절조정방법을 필요로 한다. 또한 연쇄계절조정계열은 연쇄가중법 적용 후 사후적으로 계절조정을 실시하는지 아니면 계절조정계열을 대상으로 연쇄가중법을 적용하는지 등 적용순서에 따라 산출 결과에 차이가 발생할 수 있다. 국민소득통계를 이용한 시산결과 우리나라에서는 연간법에 의해 분기 연쇄지수를 산출하고 사후적으로 계절조정을 실시하는 것이 가장 바람직한 것으로 평가되었다. Chain-linking is a method for aggregating volume measures which would improve the quality of estimates of economic growth over the present fixed base in Korea. There is a risk that choice of chain-linking techniques such annual overlap, one-quarter overlap or over-the-year overlap may create an artificial seasonality to the volume series. The empirical results on Korean GDP suggest that the use of the annual overlap is recommended. And conducting seasonal adjustment after chain-linking to produce the chain-linked seasonally adjusted GDP is more appropriated in Korea.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.332
Threshold uncertainty score0.498

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.084
GPT teacher head0.374
Teacher spread0.290 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it