The Impact of the Great Recession on the Euro Area: the Impossible Adjustment of Greece
Bibliographic record
Abstract
At present the Euro Area is confronted with the persistence of the sovereign debt crisis. Despite the amount of measures implemented by the policymakers over the past years, the adjustment process is tough and seems impossible in several countries (for instance Greece, where the GDP contracted for the 17th quarter in row). In fact, these economies risk becoming permanent asymmetric shocks at the Monetary Union level. In this paper I estimate the evolution of the potential GDP in Greece during the period 1996-2011 by employing the Cobb-Douglas methodology. According to the results, the potential GDP of Greece turned negative after the shock of the 2008 global liquidity crisis. This indicator deteriorated severely afterwards, as the capital investment contracted, with negative impact for the total factor productivity. One can draw an important conclusion from this analysis: the European policymakers should take active measures for the relaunch of the investment flows in Greece in other Southern economies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".