Hydrodynamic and loss of life modelling for the 1953 Canvey Island flood
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canvey Island is located in the Thames Estuary. The island is a low-lying alluvial fan covering an area of 18.5 km2, with an average height of approximately 1 m below the mean high water level. Canvey Island is protected against inundation by a network of flood defences. In 1953, the island was inundated by the “Great North Sea Flood” that breached the island’s flood defences and resulted in the deaths of 58 people and the destruction of several hundred houses. As part of the EC funded research project FLOODsite, work was undertaken to set up both a hydrodynamic and an agent-based loss-of-life model of Canvey Island for the 1953 flood. The objective of the work was to obtain a better understanding of the 1953 flood event and to analyse the consequences of breaches in the island’s flood defences in terms of loss of life and injuries. The work undertaken indicates that the agent-based life safety model can provide a scientifically robust method to assess loss of life, injuries and evacuation times for areas that are at risk from flooding in the UK.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".