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Record W899584101

Optimism Grew Again in Q3, Spread across Industries

2009· article· en· W899584101 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Megan M. Pinkston

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of accountancy online/Journal of accountancy · 2009
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldBusiness, Management and Accounting
TopicRisk Management in Financial Firms
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsOptimismPessimismQuarter (Canadian coin)RecessionReal estateEconomic recoveryEconomicsBusiness cycleDemographic economicsBusinessFinancePsychologyGeographySocial psychologyMacroeconomics
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] Heightened optimism among CPA financial executives seems to indicate the worst of the recession is in the past, but the consensus is growing that the U.S. economy is still a ways off from achieving a full recovery While optimism about the economy continued to improve and spread across most industries in the third quarter, the percentage of executives who don't see a recovery beginning until at least the second half of 2010 increased substantially (27% vs. 43%) from the previous quarter. When asked about the economic outlook for their own organizations, optimists outnumbered pessimists for the first time since the third quarter of 2008, according to results from the AICPA/UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Business & Industry Economic Outlook Survey Q3 2009. About 38% of respondents were optimistic or very optimistic about the economic prospects for their organization over the next 12 months, while 29% were very pessimistic or pessimistic. Thirty-three percent were neutral. Respondents also were more optimistic about their own organizations than about the U.S. economy as a whole (38% vs. 26%), continuing the trend seen over the past two years. Although optimism was more widespread than in previous surveys, it was not evenly distributed across all industries. Respondents from professional services and technology organizations see a brighter outlook for the upcoming year, with 49% and 61%, respectively, reporting they're optimistic, compared with their colleagues in real estate and construction, who were 29% and 28% optimistic, respectively. We saw very substantial optimism in technology, but even more so, and we saw professional services also being really quite optimistic. But the degree of optimism extended all the way down into retail, wholesale and manufacturing to some extent, and so it seemed as though the green shoots were spreading across a wide range of industries, said Mark H. Lang, CPA, a Kenan-Flagler accounting professor. Executives continued to push back the projected timing for improvements in their own organizations. Twenty-four percent of respondents said they expect the prospects for their organizations to improve in the first half of 2010 (down from 27% in the second quarter), 23% in the second half of 2010 (up from 18% in the second quarter) and 14% in 2011 or beyond (up from 8% in the second quarter). Layoffs, however, were third on the list of actions implemented in response to the crisis. …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Scholarly communication, Research integrity
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.315
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.003
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.012
Open science0.0030.000
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.284
Teacher spread0.261 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2009
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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