Bibliographic record
Abstract
[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] Heightened optimism among CPA financial executives seems to indicate the worst of the recession is in the past, but the consensus is growing that the U.S. economy is still a ways off from achieving a full recovery While optimism about the economy continued to improve and spread across most industries in the third quarter, the percentage of executives who don't see a recovery beginning until at least the second half of 2010 increased substantially (27% vs. 43%) from the previous quarter. When asked about the economic outlook for their own organizations, optimists outnumbered pessimists for the first time since the third quarter of 2008, according to results from the AICPA/UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Business & Industry Economic Outlook Survey Q3 2009. About 38% of respondents were optimistic or very optimistic about the economic prospects for their organization over the next 12 months, while 29% were very pessimistic or pessimistic. Thirty-three percent were neutral. Respondents also were more optimistic about their own organizations than about the U.S. economy as a whole (38% vs. 26%), continuing the trend seen over the past two years. Although optimism was more widespread than in previous surveys, it was not evenly distributed across all industries. Respondents from professional services and technology organizations see a brighter outlook for the upcoming year, with 49% and 61%, respectively, reporting they're optimistic, compared with their colleagues in real estate and construction, who were 29% and 28% optimistic, respectively. We saw very substantial optimism in technology, but even more so, and we saw professional services also being really quite optimistic. But the degree of optimism extended all the way down into retail, wholesale and manufacturing to some extent, and so it seemed as though the green shoots were spreading across a wide range of industries, said Mark H. Lang, CPA, a Kenan-Flagler accounting professor. Executives continued to push back the projected timing for improvements in their own organizations. Twenty-four percent of respondents said they expect the prospects for their organizations to improve in the first half of 2010 (down from 27% in the second quarter), 23% in the second half of 2010 (up from 18% in the second quarter) and 14% in 2011 or beyond (up from 8% in the second quarter). Layoffs, however, were third on the list of actions implemented in response to the crisis. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.012 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".