Failure to launch: Cross-national trends in the transition to economic independence
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyze trends in the age of economic independence in six industrialized countries, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The paper compares trends in the household living arrangements, employment rates, earnings levels, and net incomes as young adults rise in age from 18 to 34 years old. Our results show a picture of generally declining independent living and economic self-sufficiency ('failure to launch') among 18-34 year-old men and women in their early 20s from the mid-1980s to 1995-2000. The exceptions are women in their late 20s and early 30s , who have somewhat improved prospects for economic independence, although from a starting level that was well below that observed among men of the same age. North America (the United States and Canada ) and to some extent the U.K. offer partial exceptions to this general pattern. Between the mid-1980s and 2000 employment rates improved among young Americans in their late 20s and early 30s, and earnings levels either remained stable or increased modestly. The stability of U.S. employment levels helped to offset an apparent reduction in male hourly wage rates for this group , giving 26-34 year-old American men either larger gains or smaller losses in economic self-sufficiency compared to those experienced by their counterparts in continental Europe. In addition, young women in the U.S. who were 26 and older saw bigger improvements in wage self-sufficiency than most of their counterparts in continental Europe. In the closing section we speculate on the possible causes for such changes.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it