Failure to launch: Cross-national trends in the transition to economic independence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyze trends in the age of economic independence in six industrialized countries, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The paper compares trends in the household living arrangements, employment rates, earnings levels, and net incomes as young adults rise in age from 18 to 34 years old. Our results show a picture of generally declining independent living and economic self-sufficiency ('failure to launch') among 18-34 year-old men and women in their early 20s from the mid-1980s to 1995-2000. The exceptions are women in their late 20s and early 30s , who have somewhat improved prospects for economic independence, although from a starting level that was well below that observed among men of the same age. North America (the United States and Canada ) and to some extent the U.K. offer partial exceptions to this general pattern. Between the mid-1980s and 2000 employment rates improved among young Americans in their late 20s and early 30s, and earnings levels either remained stable or increased modestly. The stability of U.S. employment levels helped to offset an apparent reduction in male hourly wage rates for this group , giving 26-34 year-old American men either larger gains or smaller losses in economic self-sufficiency compared to those experienced by their counterparts in continental Europe. In addition, young women in the U.S. who were 26 and older saw bigger improvements in wage self-sufficiency than most of their counterparts in continental Europe. In the closing section we speculate on the possible causes for such changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".