Inferring complex agent motions from partial trajectory observations
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Tracking the movements of a target based on limited observations plays a role in many interesting applications. Existing probabilistic tracking techniques have shown considerable success but the majority assume simplistic motion models suitable for short-term, local motion prediction. Agent movements are often governed by more sophisticated mechanisms such as a goal-directed path-planning algorithm. In such contexts we must go beyond estimating a target's current location to consider its future path and ultimate goal. We show how to use complex, black box motion models to infer distributions over a target's current position, origin, and destination, using only limited observations of the full path. Our approach accommodates motion models defined over a graph, including complex pathing algorithms such as A*. Robust and practical inference is achieved by using hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) and graph abstraction. The method has also been extended to effectively track multiple, indistinguishable agents via a greedy heuristic.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it