Бесполезность Монреальского протокола для сохранения озонового слоя планеты
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sanctions of the Montreal Protocol (MP) cover more 100 chemicals, actively used and still are used in various industries. This caused enormous damage to the world economy and ecology. On the agenda today is the ban temporarily allowed hydrochlorofluorocarbons. subjects of my research are the effectiveness of the measures proposed by the MP for preserving the ozone layer and validity of its theoretical basis, which is a technologically-freon ozone depletion hypothesis. Method of research, which I use for this purpose, includes: (i) review of media publications about the ozone layer over the past 14 years, (ii) the study of primary data of satellite and ground-based ozone layer monitoring. In my article, I show that during the 27 years of the MP validity the degree of the ozone layer destruction has been steadily growing. I substantiate in detail that freon concept of ozone depletion is untenable theory. Its main provisions do not stand the test of time. My conclusions are as follows: (i) the action of the Montreal Protocol should be discontinued, and the question about the causes of the ozone layer destruction should be placed at the center of modern scientific research, (ii) the world community should return from the Montreal Protocol to the Vienna Convention. Montreal Protocol; ozone layer; ozone holes; freons; freon-technogenic hypothesis A Record Increase of Ozone Hole Was Registered over Antarctica. NEWS.Ru. N.p., 11 Oct. 2000. Web. . (In Russian). Andreev A.G., Zhabin I.A. of Freons and Dissolved Oxygen in the Intermediate Waters of the Sea of Okhotsk. Meteorology and Hydrology 1 (2000): 61–69. (In Russian). Baybakov S.N., Martynov A.I. From the Satellite Orbit into the Eye of Typhoon. Moscow: Nauka Publisher, 1976. 176 p. (In Russian). Bulsiewicz K., Rose H., Klatt O., Putzka A., Roether W. A Capillary‐Column Chromatographic System for Efficient Chlorofluorocarbon Measurement in Ocean Waters. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012) 103.C8 (1998): 15959–15970. Chernikov A.A., Borisov A., Zvyagintsev A.M., Kruchenitsky G.M., Perov S.P., Sidorenkov N.S., Stasyuk O.V. The Impact of El Nino of 1997-1998 on the Ozone Layer. Meteorology and Hydrology 3 (1998): 104–110. (In Russian). DeFlaun M.F., Ensley B.D., Steffan R.J. Biological Oxidation of Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by a Methanotrophic Bacterium. Biotechnology 10 (1992): 1576–1578. Huge Ozone Hole for the First Time Aroused Over the Arctic. NEWS.Ru. N.p., 3 Oct. 2011. Web. . (In Russian). In 2005, One-Third of the Ozone Layer Has Collapsed over Europe. NEWS.Ru. N.p., 29 Apr. 2005. Web. . (In Russian). Isidorov V.A. Chemistry of the Leningrad: Khimiya Publisher, 1985. 264 p. (In Russian). Kazimirovsky E.S., Matafonov G.K. Continental and Orographic Structures from the Global Distribution of Total Doklady Earth Sciences 361.4 (1998): 544–546. (In Russian). Khalil M.A.K., Rasmussen R.A. The Potential of Soils as a Sink for Chlorofluorocarbons and Other Man-Made Chlorocarbons. Geophys. Res. Lett. 16 (1989): 679–682. Kyle P.R., ed. Volcanological and Environmental Studies of Mount Erebus, Antarctica, Antarctic Research Series. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union, 1994. Kyle P.R., Kimberley M., Finnegan D. Emission Rates of Sulfur Dioxide, Trace Gases and Metals from Mount Erebus, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 17.12 (1990): 2125–2128. Lovley D.R., Woodward J.C. of Freons CFC-11 and CFC-12 by Anaerobic Sediments and Soils. Environ. Sci. Technol. 26 (1992): 925–929. Marakushev A.A. It Necessary to Change the Refrigerants?. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences 68.9 (1998): 813–816. (In Russian). Huge Ozone Hole for the First Time Aroused Over the Arctic. NEWS.Ru. N.p., 3 Oct. 2011. Web. . (In Russian). Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, dated 16 Sep. Official Website of UN. UN, n.d. Web. . (In Russian). Montreal Protocol Protect the Ozone Layer. Fobos. N.p., 11 Sep. 2014. Web. . (In Russian). Molina M.J., Rowland F.S. Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom Catalyzsed Destruction of Nature 249 (1974): 810–812. Oremland R.S., Lonergan D.J., Culbertson C.W., Lovley D.R. Microbial Degradation of Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (CHCl2F and CHCl2CF3) in Soils and Sediments. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 62.5 (1996): 1818–1821. Ozone Hole May Disappear 50 Years Later. NEWS.Ru. N.p., 18 Sept. 2002. Web. . (In Russian). Ozone Hole over Antarctica Has Grown to a Record Size. Polit.ru. N.p., 3 Oct. 2006. Web. . (In Russian). Ozone Hole over Antarctica Has Set a New Record for Largest. NEWS.Ru. N.p., 17 Sep. 2008. Web. . (In Russian). Ozone Hole over the Arctic and Antarctic Have Stopped Growing. Polit.ru. N.p.. 8 Sep. 2006. . (In Russian). Panikov N.S. Are Boreal Bogs a Global Source of Atmospheric Methane?. Priroda [The Nature] 6 (1995): 14–25. (In Russian). Perov S.P. Earth's Ozone Layer: Situation Is More Serious Than It Was Supposed. Earth and Universe 1 (1990): 10–16. (In Russian). Perov S.P., Khrgian A.Kh. Modern Problems of Atmospheric Ozone. Leningrad Gidrometeoizdat Publisher, 1980. 287 p. (In Russian). Rowland F.S., Molina M.J. Chlorofluoromethanes in the Environment. Reviews of Geophysics 13.1 (1975): 1–35. Select Ozone Maps. Ozone and Ultraviolet Research and Monitoring. Environment Canada's World Wide Web Site. Green LaneTM. Web. . Smirnov V.V., Novitsky M.A. Spread of Dust Jets in Atmosphere. Meteorology and Hydrology 12 (1999): 39–49. (In Russian). Smyshlyaev S.P. Numerical Modeling of Heterogeneous Ozone Destruction in the Polar Stratospheric Clouds. Meteorology and Hydrology 12 (1994): 44–51. (In Russian). Speech of the General Secretary of the United Nations on the Occasion of Celebrate of the International Day for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. Official Website of the Project No GF/RUS/11/001 “Stepwise Curtailing of Hydrochlorofluorocarbons Consumption and Stimulate the Transition to Not Containing Hydrofluorocarbons Energy Efficient Refrigeration and Climatic Equipment in the Russian Federation Through Technology Transfer”. UNIDO, Natural Resources Ministry of Russian Federation, 16 Sep. 2014. Web. . (In Russian). Syvorotkin V.L. of the Earth and the Destruction of the Ozone Layer. Priroda [The Nature] 9 (1993): 35-45. (In Russian). Syvorotkin V.L. Deep Degassing and Global Catastrophes. Moscow: Geoinformtsentr Publisher, 2002. 250 p. (In Russian). Taziev G. On Volcanoes of Soufriere, Erebus, Etna. Moscow: Mir Publisher, 1987. 263 p. (In Russian). UN: Ozone Hole over the Past Ten Years Has Not Increased. NEWS.Ru. N.p., 17 Sep. 2010. Web. . (In Russian). Vargin P.N., Gruzdev A.N. What Happens with the Ozone Layer Currently. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences 83.4 (2013): 354–358. (In Russian). Zelenin K.N. Organic Substances of the Atmosphere. Biology. Chemistry. Earth Sciences. Physics. Mathematics: Soros Educational Journal 4 (1998): 39–44. (In Russian). Zreda-Gostynska G., Kyle P.R., Finnegan D., Prestbo K.M. Volcanic Gas Emissions from Mount Erebus and Their Impact on the Antarctic Environment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (1978–2012) 102.B7 (1997) 15039–15055. Syvorotkin, V. L. Uselessness of the Montreal Protocol To Save the Ozone Layer. Space and Time 3(17) (2014): 256–265. (In Russian). Fixed network address 2226-7271provr_st3-17.2014.94.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.041 | 0.034 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".