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Record W9856233

Prediction Markets as Web 2.0 Tools for Enterprise 2.0

2011· article· en· W9856233 on OpenAlexaff
Cédric Gaspoz

Bibliographic record

VenueAmericas Conference on Information Systems · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicSports Analytics and Performance
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
Fundersnot available
KeywordsComputer scienceSoftware deploymentFraming (construction)Proxy (statistics)Prediction marketContext (archaeology)Knowledge managementData scienceBusinessFinanceMachine learning
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In today’s fast-changing business environment, companies and stakeholders are confronted with a new range of businessdecisions. These decisions are constrained by events that are out of the scope of competencies of the decision makers. In thiscontext, prediction markets, which have demonstrated their efficiency in predicting the outcome of major elections, couldsupport companies in leveraging the knowledge and competencies of their collaborators. Using the power of Web 2.0 and theparticipative collaboration of the crowd, prediction markets are well designed to assess this new range of decisions. Thesimple buy and sell mechanism uses the crowd as proxy toward various information sources. Moreover, the decision task isdistributed between the traders, leaving them the tasks of framing the problem, setting the evaluation criteria and collectingthe supporting information, aggregating their results through the current market price.This paper presents the capabilities of prediction market as Web 2.0 decision making tool to increase the efficiency of thedecision making process in Enterprise 2.0 companies. It relies on many characteristics of these companies such as theenhanced collaboration between dispersed collaborators through social networks tools, the commitment of all collaborators inthe knowledge management process and the dedication of the organization toward open and participatory decision processes.It also have the ability to promptly leverage pieces of information scattered through the organization, without requesting asingle stakeholder knowing what to search for and where to search it. Moreover, due to the engagement of a large crowd inthe decision process, final decisions are subject to a broaden adhesion within the company.We conclude by making propositions regarding the deployment of this decision making tool. This involves numerousmanagerial issues, but also opens new perspectives to build upon the collective knowledge of the enterprise.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.008
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.010
Threshold uncertainty score0.033

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.008
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0030.006
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0100.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.101
GPT teacher head0.244
Teacher spread0.143 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations6
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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