Investigating greenhouse gas emission pathways In selected OECD countries using a hybrid energy-economy approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This report outlines the development and analysis of CIMS OECD-EPM.CIMS OECD-EPM is a hybrid energy-economy model that forecasts energy consumption and GHG emissions in 28 OECD countries from 2005 to 2050.In the absence of climate change mitigation policy, growth forecasts for energy consumption and GHG emissions are moderate, far below that projected for non-OECD regions.With its unique modelling structure, which incorporates technological detail, macroeconomic feedbacks and behavioural realism, CIMS OECD-EPM is used to simulate the impact of abatement policies on the region.Initial results suggest that significant emission reductions can be achieved.Development of carbon capture and storage, nuclear and energy-efficient technologies in the electricity and industrial sectors are the primary drivers of abatement in the region.Overall, abatement activity in OECD-EPM is likely to be more costly than in other world regions; high marginal abatement costs and high levels of technological development limit incremental mitigation activity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".