What Will 2015 Bring to the U.S. Economy

PARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Beard = Conference Board, New York, New Yok, Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, DC ; IHS= IHS Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania, GSU-EFC = Georgia State Universiy, Economic Forecasting Censer, Atlanta, Georgia, Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, DC., NAM =National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, DC , Northern Tr = Norrthern Trust Company, Chicago Illionois, Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; S&P = Standard & Poor's, New v0'k, New YodThe U.S. economy in 2015 is expected to continue on its current path of growth well into the first quarter of 2016. Consensus expects the country's GDP growth rate to remain in the neighborhood of 2.25 percent. Recent declines in the price of crude (now, below US$45/barrel), as well as the unemployment rate (now, at 5.5 percent) together with slight improvements in disposable income have raised both consumer confidence and spending. At the same time, GDP growth has remained tepid due to cautious consumers who have been squeezed by a minimal rise in wage rates. Further, the surging dollar, now at a six-year high against the euro ($1.06), has made U.S. exports more expensive to struggling European economies.CONSUMERSThe continuous improvements in employment rate and increases in consumers' personal disposable income have positively affected consumption and, subsequently, growth in the economy. The continued gains in the stock market (now, Dow Jones at more than 17,500 and S&P 500 above 2,000 levels) have also contributed to higher consumer spending.The ratio of Personal Consumption Expenditures over Personal Disposable Income is expected to stay around 92 percent. The increase in Personal Disposable Income is expected to be around 3.61 percentfrom the second quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, whereas the increase in Personal Consumption Expenditures, will be around 3.83 percent. This suggests that consumers are still cautious about spending.FIRMSThe unemployment rate is expected to be 5.28 percent by the first quarter of 2016. The declining unemployment may provide market power to employees to negotiate better and potentially higher wages after several years of stagnation. Copyright ©2015 Journal of Business Forecasting I All Rights Reserved I Spring 2015Light vehicle sales have exceeded 16 million In 2015, and are expected to reach 16. …

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