Bibliographic record
Abstract
PARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Beard = Conference Board, New York, New Yok, Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, DC ; IHS= IHS Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania, GSU-EFC = Georgia State Universiy, Economic Forecasting Censer, Atlanta, Georgia, Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, DC., NAM =National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, DC , Northern Tr = Norrthern Trust Company, Chicago Illionois, Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; S&P = Standard & Poor's, New v0'k, New YodThe U.S. economy in 2015 is expected to continue on its current path of growth well into the first quarter of 2016. Consensus expects the country's GDP growth rate to remain in the neighborhood of 2.25 percent. Recent declines in the price of crude (now, below US$45/barrel), as well as the unemployment rate (now, at 5.5 percent) together with slight improvements in disposable income have raised both consumer confidence and spending. At the same time, GDP growth has remained tepid due to cautious consumers who have been squeezed by a minimal rise in wage rates. Further, the surging dollar, now at a six-year high against the euro ($1.06), has made U.S. exports more expensive to struggling European economies.CONSUMERSThe continuous improvements in employment rate and increases in consumers' personal disposable income have positively affected consumption and, subsequently, growth in the economy. The continued gains in the stock market (now, Dow Jones at more than 17,500 and S&P 500 above 2,000 levels) have also contributed to higher consumer spending.The ratio of Personal Consumption Expenditures over Personal Disposable Income is expected to stay around 92 percent. The increase in Personal Disposable Income is expected to be around 3.61 percentfrom the second quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, whereas the increase in Personal Consumption Expenditures, will be around 3.83 percent. This suggests that consumers are still cautious about spending.FIRMSThe unemployment rate is expected to be 5.28 percent by the first quarter of 2016. The declining unemployment may provide market power to employees to negotiate better and potentially higher wages after several years of stagnation. Copyright ©2015 Journal of Business Forecasting I All Rights Reserved I Spring 2015Light vehicle sales have exceeded 16 million In 2015, and are expected to reach 16. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".