Notice bibliographique
Résumé
After almost ten years of dynamic expansion, the U.S. economy took an abrupt turn in 2000, its growth declining from over 5 percent in the first half to 1 percent in the fourth quarter. Manufacturing entered a period of contraction, whereas the services sector continued to profit from private household demand which was still holding up. Aware of the pending risks, the Federal Reserve has since been cutting its interest rate fully five times in a row, by altogether 2.5 percentage points. The cheap money allowed consumers in particular to splurge on credit-financed consumption. While this helped to boost growth to 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2001, the personal savings ratio, already at a negative level in the past, continued to drop. The stuttering economy caused productivity growth to stagnate in the first three months and unemployment to soar. Company surveys found that no turnaround is in sight and that the spectre of recession is still looming. Countries with strong economic ties to the USA are already registering a distinct dip in their exports. Exports by euro zone countries, on the other hand, were not much affected, thanks to the low euro/dollar exchange rate. Hopes that the higher growth rate in 2000 would signal a sustained recovery of the Japanese economy have been dashed by the latest company surveys. Driven primarily by exports in the first half of 2000, the economy suffered a damper as a result of slackening growth in the USA and the precipitous decline of international demand for IT products. Private expenditure continues to be moderate since labour market prospects are still bleak. Job uncertainty puts a check on consumption by private households. In spite of rising oil prices, the Japanese economy last year was unable to extract itself from the deflation spiral. In 2000, GDP in the euro zone and in the EU-15 states rose by 3.4 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, in real terms, compared to 2.5 percent each in 1999. After briskly expanding until summer, the EU economy lost some of its momentum for the rest of the year. The slightly lower dynamism, however, was not due to its foreign trade, as would be logical when considering the drastic cooling of the U.S. economy, but primarily the result of a slump in domestic demand. Demand for investment suffered from a generally more restrictive monetary policy and a gloomier international outlook. Weakening domestic demand was most pronounced in private consumption. The high oil price, combined with a low euro/dollar exchange rate, impacted on disposable private households incomes and checked the pace of their expenditure on consumption. The economic slowdown was most noticeable in Germany, where private consumption showed hardly any increase in the first quarter of 2001 in spite of tax cuts amounting to 1 percent of GDP, and investment in plant and equipment is similarly reticent. The German construction industry is seriously affected. Its long-standing crisis was accelerated in the first three months of 2001. Surveys find that the downswing experienced throughout the EU is expected to continue on its downward course.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,005 | 0,006 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,033 | 0,010 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».