Notice bibliographique
Résumé
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKLike private bubbles, government bubbles are subject to correction. The twin-peaks of money and budget deficits, created in the last five years, were expected to adversely affect the global economy with one- to two-year lags, by destabilizing consumer spending and capital expenditures as well as reallocating holdings of assets. The reversal process for these herculean policies, also called exit strategy, has begun with fiscal consolidation from the United States to Europe, Asia, and Latin American. After the zero interest rate policies proved ineffective, they were followed by several quantitative easing rounds, aka printing money, which were partially used intentionally to correct banks' balance sheets and via financial investments in the stock market, without inducing private capital expenditures, the engine of growth and jobs.Four years into a fragile and weak global recovery, economic policies around the world have failed to stimulate private investment amid uncertainties, anti-business fiscal policies, and rigid labor markets. Economic growth at potential levels is still not around the corner.The weak global economic recovery is expected to continue over the short-run forecast horizon as changes in capital expenditures take six to eight quarters to fully be translated to incomes and jobs.During 2008-2012, worldwide growth in investment averaged 2.8%, compared with a long-term (1980-2007) average growth of 3.4%. More important, investment in the advanced economies in the last five years (2008-2012) declined by an average rate of 2.1%, about twice below the long-term (1980-2007) growth of 2.5%. During 2008-2012, in the emerging and developing economies investment jumped by an average of 6.9%, which is about 2% higher than the 4.8% long-term (1980-2007) average investment growth.In the rest of 2013 and in 2014, the strength of the global economic upswing will be strongly linked to business expenditures on capital goods. According to the findings of the latest Ifo survey of business executives, capital expenditures in the third quarter of this year were below satisfactory levels worldwide, and in each per capita defined income group, from high-income to middle-income and low-income countries. Characteristically, executives from both China and India assessed third quarter investment spending plans in their respected countries to be below those in the third quarter of 2012. Looking at the future, business executives from around the world anticipate an increase in capital expenditures over the next six months. In the first quarter of 2014, capital expenditures are expected to be higher than in the third quarter of 2013.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey, which was conducted in the third quarter of 2013 by the German Ifo Institute and the Parisbased International Chamber ofCommerce. About 1,200 executives from 125 countries have indicated that global economic activity stalled in the current quarter but they expect a recovery over the next six months. The major findings of the third quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, the third quarter of 2013, to be below satisfactory levels, led by unsatisfactory levels of capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries in the third quarter of 2013 to be the same or slightly below economic conditions in the third quarter of 2012. Most importantly, executives are optimistic regarding the future, expecting economic conditions in the first quarter of 2014 to be above those prevailing in the third quarter of 2013.* On a regional basis, North America executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels although better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».